Gold Price Outlook 2026: Central Bank Buying and the Path Higher

The gold bull market does not look finished. Having broken $2,400 an ounce in 2025, the metal is being pushed higher by a combination of central bank buying, geopolitical risk and stubbornly persistent inflation.

Central bank purchases have been the single biggest story. 2025 saw 1,037 tonnes bought globally, the third year in a row above 1,000 tonnes. China, India, Poland, Turkey and Singapore have been the most aggressive buyers.

Most of this is a deliberate move away from US dollar reserves. The ‘de-dollarisation’ trend gathered pace after Russian central bank reserves were frozen in 2022, which made the political risk of holding too many dollar assets very visible to other reserve managers.

For private investors, this central bank bid puts a fairly hard floor under the gold price. Sovereign buying absorbs supply that would otherwise weigh on the market.

Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and UBS have all published constructive 2026 targets, with some scenarios reaching $6,200 an ounce. The thinking is that the structural drivers, central bank demand, inflation hedging, geopolitical risk, are not going away.

We tend to talk to clients about gold as a permanent allocation rather than a tactical position. CGT-free Britannias and Sovereigns remain the most tax-efficient way to hold it.