John Swinney Presses for US Whisky Tariff Cuts in White House Talks

At Steadman Chase, London-based experts in bottle and cask whisky investment, we closely monitor global trade developments that shape the Scotch whisky market. Recent discussions between Scotland’s First Minister and the US President highlight just how influential international policy can be for investors and producers alike.

First Minister John Swinney has described his recent meeting with US President Donald Trump at the White House as “constructive,” with Scotch whisky tariffs firmly at the top of the agenda.

The focus? The current 10% tariff applied to Scotch whisky imports into the United States — a levy Swinney believes should be reduced or ideally eliminated to support growth on both sides of the Atlantic.

Why US Tariffs Matter to the Scotch Whisky Industry

Tariffs are far more than a political talking point — they have tangible financial consequences.

According to the Scotch Whisky Association (SWA), US tariffs are costing the Scotch whisky industry an estimated £4 million per week. Reduced competitiveness in the American market directly impacts distillers, exporters, distributors, and the wider hospitality sector.

The ripple effect stretches even further. American bourbon producers — particularly those in Kentucky — play a crucial role in Scotch production. Ex-bourbon barrels are widely used to mature Scotch whisky, forming a symbiotic trade relationship between the two industries.

Graeme Littlejohn of the SWA has warned that tariffs not only suppress Scotch sales in the US but also weaken transatlantic trade relationships that support cooperages, logistics firms, and hospitality businesses.

Building on Earlier Discussions

This White House meeting builds on previous talks between Swinney and Trump held in Aberdeenshire in July. With Trump’s state visit to the UK scheduled for 17–19 September, the First Minister sees a vital opportunity to push for what he calls a “zero-for-zero” tariff approach.

Following his Oval Office meeting, Swinney posted that removing tariffs entirely would allow the industry to “flourish on both sides of the pond,” reinforcing the argument that Scotch whisky’s global success depends on open trade rather than protectionism.

Although trade negotiations formally sit with the UK government, Swinney’s lobbying aligns with Westminster’s broader objectives. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his team are also seeking improved trade terms with Washington.

Scotch and Bourbon: Partners, Not Rivals

A key pillar of Swinney’s argument is that Scotch whisky and Kentucky bourbon are not competitors — they are interdependent industries.

The SWA estimates that approximately $1.2 billion (£880 million) worth of old bourbon barrels are expected to be exported to Scotland during Trump’s second term. Any escalation in tariffs risks disrupting this valuable exchange.

Maintaining low or zero tariffs would therefore safeguard employment, support cooperages and logistics networks, and strengthen one of the most successful spirits trade relationships in the world.

The Risk of a 25% Single Malt Tariff Returning

Beyond the current 10% duty, the industry faces a looming deadline. A 25% tariff on single malt Scotch — first introduced in 2019 as part of a US–EU dispute over aircraft subsidies — was suspended in 2021 for five years.

Unless a permanent solution is agreed, that higher tariff could return in June 2026. Its reintroduction would significantly increase export costs and potentially dampen demand in one of Scotch whisky’s most important global markets.

For investors, this underscores how geopolitics can directly influence valuation, liquidity, and exit opportunities in both bottle and cask markets.

A Unique and Protected Global Product

As Swinney emphasised during discussions, Scotch whisky occupies a legally protected position: it can only be produced in Scotland. This geographical exclusivity underpins its global prestige and long-term investment appeal.

However, even protected designations do not insulate the industry from international trade policy. Tariff decisions made in Washington or London can meaningfully affect pricing structures, global demand, and ultimately the performance of whisky as an alternative asset.

What Happens Next?

While President Trump reportedly acknowledged he had not previously realised the extent of industry concern around whisky tariffs, further discussions are expected. Greater clarity may emerge during his September state visit to the UK.

For now, producers and investors alike remain cautiously optimistic that constructive dialogue could lead to a more stable and favourable trading environment.

What This Means for Whisky Investors

For those involved in whisky investment, trade developments such as these reinforce the importance of market awareness and strategic positioning. Global demand for Scotch remains strong, but tariff policy can influence short- to medium-term market conditions.

At Steadman Chase, we continue to monitor international trade discussions closely. As London-based specialists in bottle and cask whisky investment, we help clients navigate both market opportunities and geopolitical risks — ensuring portfolios are structured with long-term resilience in mind.